Why low Rhine water can make some Swiss supply chains more expensive
Low water can reduce barge loading capacity. WillItCostMore treats Kaub as a targeted logistics-pressure signal—especially for Rhine-connected fuel and bulk-input chains—not as a universal inflation predictor.
Kaub / Rhine mechanism
WillItCostMore converts the current Kaub gauge into a bounded logistics-pressure signal and applies it only where the model has explicit Rhine exposure. The signal is intentionally strongest for heating oil, diesel and petrol; most food products carry only small or zero structural sensitivity.
Scientific basis
Research on inland waterways documents that low water can force reduced vessel loading or interrupt navigation, while broader shipping-cost research finds that transport-cost shocks can pass into import and producer prices. The Science page lists the cited JRC, Bundesbank and IMF evidence. Exact score weights remain transparent model priors, not claimed causal coefficients.