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← Outlooks
Sunflower oil
UNITED KINGDOM · FOOD

Sunflower oil

Sunflower oil is exposed to oilseed harvests, global vegetable-oil prices, currency moves and transport costs.

Price pressure62/ 100 · RISINGConfidence: Medium · 1–5 months
Interpretation

The score measures directional pressure. It is not the expected percentage price change. Current market coverage: 100%

How to read the scores →

Why this score?

Global commodity · vegetable oilsTracks an upstream global cost or supply signal for this product.Global commodities · Strong evidence
+2.3 pts
Local drynessTracks physical production stress from weather, drought, crop or hydrology conditions.Weather & crop stress · Strong evidence
+2.1 pts
Regional droughtTracks physical production stress from weather, drought, crop or hydrology conditions.Weather & crop stress · Strong evidence
+2.1 pts
Crop conditions · oilseedsTracks physical production stress from weather, drought, crop or hydrology conditions.Weather & crop stress · Strong evidence
+2.0 pts
Domestic market prices · oilseeds priceTracks whether upstream pressure is appearing in farm, input or wholesale prices.Farm & wholesale transmission · Strong evidence
+1.1 pts
Farm input costs · energy costTracks direct energy prices or energy-related production costs.Energy inputs · Strong evidence
+0.5 pts
Farm input costs · fertiliser costTracks whether upstream pressure is appearing in farm, input or wholesale prices.Farm & wholesale transmission · Strong evidence
+0.5 pts
Supply outlook · oilseedsTracks an upstream global cost or supply signal for this product.Global commodities · Strong evidence
+0.1 pts
Rhine logisticsTracks transport constraints relevant to this market and product.Logistics · Moderate evidence
+0.0 pts
Wholesale prices · vegetable oilsTracks whether upstream pressure is appearing in farm, input or wholesale prices.Farm & wholesale transmission · Strong evidence
+0.0 pts
Global commodity · fertiliserTracks an upstream global cost or supply signal for this product.Global commodities · Strong evidence
-0.0 pts
Official outlook · sunflower oilA low-weight confirmation signal showing whether pressure is already appearing in retail prices or an official outlook.Retail confirmation · Supporting evidence
+0.0 pts
Food inflationA low-weight confirmation signal showing whether pressure is already appearing in retail prices or an official outlook.Retail confirmation · Supporting evidence
-0.1 pts
Local heatTracks physical production stress from weather, drought, crop or hydrology conditions.Weather & crop stress · Strong evidence
-1.0 pts
Import currencyTracks whether the local currency is amplifying or cushioning imported costs.Exchange rate · Strong evidence
-1.8 pts

What could change it?

Sunflower oil is exposed to oilseed harvests, global vegetable-oil prices, currency moves and transport costs.

Scores can reverse when commodity momentum, local weather, crop conditions, currency, logistics or inflation signals change. The model estimates directional pressure rather than an exact shelf price.

Market

United KingdomGBP
Data coverage100%
Model5.3-deep-public-data
Advanced analysis

Advanced analysis

A deeper view of score history, dispersion and driver concentration. This layer is structured so it can become a Pro feature later without changing the core forecast.

Included during Beta
History change+4.0
Score volatility1.7
Historical range57–62
Current percentile100%
Top-driver share17%
Recent directionFlat

Historical score

11 observations
2026-08-1062/1002026-08-11

Driver contribution map

Bars show the current score-point contribution. Prior weight is the maximum structural sensitivity before signal value, quality and freshness.

Global commodity · vegetable oils
+2.3
Local dryness
+2.1
Regional drought
+2.1
Crop conditions · oilseeds
+2.0
Domestic market prices · oilseeds price
+1.1
Farm input costs · energy cost
+0.5
Farm input costs · fertiliser cost
+0.5
Supply outlook · oilseeds
+0.1
Food inflation
-0.1
Local heat
-1.0
Import currency
-1.8

Cross-market distribution

See how the same product’s current pressure differs across all ten markets.

Full comparison →
Italy
67Spain
67Switzerland
66Germany
65France
65Netherlands
65Belgium
65Austria
64United Kingdom
62United States
60

Weight provenance for this product

The table shows the effective prior weights used for this market before signal value, quality and freshness are applied. A larger number means the signal can move the score more when it is extreme and high quality.

Explore our science →
ChannelPrior weightEvidence
Crop conditions · oilseedsWeather & crop stress+16.0Strong evidence
Global commodity · vegetable oilsGlobal commodities+13.0Strong evidence
Import currencyExchange rate+9.2Strong evidence
Supply outlook · oilseedsGlobal commodities+5.0Strong evidence
Domestic market prices · oilseeds priceFarm & wholesale transmission+5.0Strong evidence
Local heatWeather & crop stress+4.0Strong evidence
Local drynessWeather & crop stress+4.0Strong evidence
Regional droughtWeather & crop stress+4.0Strong evidence
Rhine logisticsLogistics+3.0Moderate evidence
Food inflationRetail confirmation+3.0Supporting evidence
Farm input costs · energy costEnergy inputs+2.0Strong evidence
Farm input costs · fertiliser costFarm & wholesale transmission+2.0Strong evidence
Global commodity · fertiliserGlobal commodities+2.0Strong evidence

Research determines the hierarchy and safeguards; exact point values remain bounded product priors pending empirical calibration.

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