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Tomatoes
UNITED STATES · FOOD

Tomatoes

Local heat and dryness, regional crop conditions, imports and current food inflation can move Tomatoes quickly because inventories are limited.

Price pressure62/ 100 · RISINGConfidence: Medium-high · Weeks–3 months
Interpretation

The score measures directional pressure. It is not the expected percentage price change. Current market coverage: 99%

How to read the scores →

Why this score?

Local heatTracks physical production stress from weather, drought, crop or hydrology conditions.Weather & crop stress · Strong evidence
+5.7 pts
Crop conditions · vegetablesTracks physical production stress from weather, drought, crop or hydrology conditions.Weather & crop stress · Strong evidence
+3.9 pts
Local drynessTracks physical production stress from weather, drought, crop or hydrology conditions.Weather & crop stress · Strong evidence
+2.7 pts
Official outlook · tomatoesA low-weight confirmation signal showing whether pressure is already appearing in retail prices or an official outlook.Retail confirmation · Supporting evidence
+1.5 pts
Food inflationA low-weight confirmation signal showing whether pressure is already appearing in retail prices or an official outlook.Retail confirmation · Supporting evidence
+0.1 pts
Import currencyTracks whether the local currency is amplifying or cushioning imported costs.Exchange rate · Strong evidence
+0.0 pts
Rhine logisticsTracks transport constraints relevant to this market and product.Logistics · Moderate evidence
+0.0 pts
Regional droughtTracks physical production stress from weather, drought, crop or hydrology conditions.Weather & crop stress · Strong evidence
+0.0 pts
Wholesale prices · fresh produceTracks whether upstream pressure is appearing in farm, input or wholesale prices.Farm & wholesale transmission · Strong evidence
+0.0 pts
Domestic market prices · fresh priceTracks whether upstream pressure is appearing in farm, input or wholesale prices.Farm & wholesale transmission · Strong evidence
+0.0 pts
Farm input costs · energy costTracks direct energy prices or energy-related production costs.Energy inputs · Strong evidence
+0.0 pts
Farm input costs · fertiliser costTracks whether upstream pressure is appearing in farm, input or wholesale prices.Farm & wholesale transmission · Strong evidence
+0.0 pts
Global commodity · fertiliserTracks an upstream global cost or supply signal for this product.Global commodities · Strong evidence
-0.0 pts

What could change it?

Local heat and dryness, regional crop conditions, imports and current food inflation can move Tomatoes quickly because inventories are limited.

Scores can reverse when commodity momentum, local weather, crop conditions, currency, logistics or inflation signals change. The model estimates directional pressure rather than an exact shelf price.


Market

United StatesUSD
Data coverage99%
Model5.3-deep-public-data
Advanced analysis

Advanced analysis

A deeper view of score history, dispersion and driver concentration. This layer is structured so it can become a Pro feature later without changing the core forecast.

Included during BetaPlus Preview →
History change+6.0
Score volatility1.5
Historical range56–62
Current percentile100%
Top-driver share41%
Recent directionFlat

Historical score

16 observations
2026-08-1062/1002026-08-12

Driver contribution map

Bars show the current score-point contribution. Prior weight is the maximum structural sensitivity before signal value, quality and freshness.

Local heat
+5.7
Crop conditions · vegetables
+3.9
Local dryness
+2.7
Official outlook · tomatoes
+1.5
Food inflation
+0.1

Cross-market distribution

See how the same product’s current pressure differs across all ten markets.

Full comparison →

Weight provenance for this product

The table shows the effective prior weights used for this market before signal value, quality and freshness are applied. A larger number means the signal can move the score more when it is extreme and high quality.

Explore our science →
ChannelPrior weightEvidence
Local heatWeather & crop stress+12.0Strong evidence
Local drynessWeather & crop stress+9.0Strong evidence
Crop conditions · vegetablesWeather & crop stress+8.0Strong evidence
Import currencyExchange rate+7.0Strong evidence
Food inflationRetail confirmation+5.0Supporting evidence
Official outlook · tomatoesRetail confirmation+4.0Supporting evidence
Global commodity · fertiliserGlobal commodities+3.0Strong evidence
Rhine logisticsLogistics+2.0Moderate evidence

Research determines the hierarchy and safeguards; exact point values remain bounded product priors pending empirical calibration.

Alerts

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