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← Outlooks
Heating oil
UNITED STATES · ENERGY

Heating oil

Heating oil reacts to crude oil, currency and logistics; Rhine constraints matter especially in Rhine-connected European markets.

Price pressure47/ 100 · WATCHConfidence: Medium-high · Weeks–4 months
Interpretation

The score measures directional pressure. It is not the expected percentage price change. Current market coverage: 75%

How to read the scores →
LIVE DATA INTERPRETATION

What the current data says

Current outlook

Heating oil price pressure in United States is currently 47/100. The current score is at least as high as 100% of recorded observations.

What changed recently?

Across the latest 4 recorded observations, the score changed by only 1.0 points.

What is driving it?

The largest upward contribution is Energy input costs (+0.6 points), while Global commodity · oil is the strongest offset (-1.0 points).

What could change the outlook?

All else equal, pressure would weaken if Energy input costs eases. The current cushion from Global commodity · oil would fade if that signal moves back toward neutral.

This explanation updates automatically from the latest stored score, recorded history and current driver contributions.

Why this score?

Energy input costsTracks direct energy prices or energy-related production costs.Energy inputs · Strong evidence
+0.6 pts
Rhine logisticsTracks transport constraints relevant to this market and product.Logistics · Moderate evidence
+0.0 pts
Import currencyTracks whether the local currency is amplifying or cushioning imported costs.Exchange rate · Strong evidence
+0.0 pts
Retail price momentum · heating oil momentumA low-weight confirmation signal showing whether pressure is already appearing in retail prices or an official outlook.Retail confirmation · Supporting evidence
+0.0 pts
U.S. official energy outlook · diesel outlookA low-weight confirmation signal showing whether pressure is already appearing in retail prices or an official outlook.Retail confirmation · Supporting evidence
+0.0 pts
Liquid-fuel inflationA low-weight confirmation signal showing whether pressure is already appearing in retail prices or an official outlook.Retail confirmation · Supporting evidence
+0.0 pts
Local heatTracks physical production stress from weather, drought, crop or hydrology conditions.Weather & crop stress · Strong evidence
-0.1 pts
Global commodity · oilTracks direct energy prices or energy-related production costs.Energy inputs · Strong evidence
-1.0 pts

What could change it?

Heating oil reacts to crude oil, currency and logistics; Rhine constraints matter especially in Rhine-connected European markets.

Scores can reverse when commodity momentum, local weather, crop conditions, currency, logistics or inflation signals change. The model estimates directional pressure rather than an exact shelf price.

Market

United StatesUSD
Data coverage75%
Model5.3-deep-public-data
Advanced analysis

Advanced analysis

A deeper view of score history, dispersion and driver concentration. This layer is structured so it can become a Pro feature later without changing the core forecast.

Included during BetaPlus Preview →
History change+1.0
Score volatility0.2
Historical range46–47
Current percentile100%
Top-driver share59%
Recent directionFlat

Historical score

160 observations
702050
2026-08-1447/1002026-09-25

Driver contribution map

Bars show the current score-point contribution. Prior weight is the maximum structural sensitivity before signal value, quality and freshness.

Energy input costs
+0.6
Local heat
-0.1
Global commodity · oil
-1.0

Cross-market distribution

See how the same product’s current pressure differs across all ten markets.

Full comparison →
Switzerland
64Germany
64Netherlands
62Belgium
62France
55Austria
54United Kingdom
53Italy
52Spain
52United States
47

Weight provenance for this product

The table shows the effective prior weights used for this market before signal value, quality and freshness are applied. A larger number means the signal can move the score more when it is extreme and high quality.

Explore our science →
ChannelPrior weightEvidence
Global commodity · oilEnergy inputs+20.0Strong evidence
Rhine logisticsLogistics+13.0Moderate evidence
Import currencyExchange rate+9.0Strong evidence
U.S. official energy outlook · diesel outlookRetail confirmation+5.0Supporting evidence
Energy input costsEnergy inputs+4.0Strong evidence
Local heatWeather & crop stress-2.0Strong evidence

Research determines the hierarchy and safeguards; exact point values remain bounded product priors pending empirical calibration.

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