SPAIN · ENERGY

Natural gas

Natural gas is driven mainly by global energy markets and the local currency, with weather changing demand and storage pressure.

Price pressure59/ 100 · WATCHConfidence: High · Weeks–6 months

Interpretation

The score measures directional pressure. It is not the expected percentage price change. Current market coverage: 100%

How to read the scores →

Why this score?

Global commodity · gasTracks direct energy prices or energy-related production costs.Energy inputs · Strong evidence

+14.0 pts

Energy input costsTracks direct energy prices or energy-related production costs.Energy inputs · Strong evidence

+0.8 pts

U.S. official energy outlook · gas outlookA low-weight confirmation signal showing whether pressure is already appearing in retail prices or an official outlook.Retail confirmation · Supporting evidence

+0.0 pts

Gas inflationA low-weight confirmation signal showing whether pressure is already appearing in retail prices or an official outlook.Retail confirmation · Supporting evidence

+0.0 pts

Local heatTracks physical production stress from weather, drought, crop or hydrology conditions.Weather & crop stress · Strong evidence

-1.0 pts

Import currencyTracks whether the local currency is amplifying or cushioning imported costs.Exchange rate · Strong evidence

-1.9 pts

What could change it?

Natural gas is driven mainly by global energy markets and the local currency, with weather changing demand and storage pressure.

Scores can reverse when commodity momentum, local weather, crop conditions, currency, logistics or inflation signals change. The model estimates directional pressure rather than an exact shelf price.

Market

SpainEUR

Data coverage100%

Model5.3-deep-public-data

Advanced analysis

A deeper view of score history, dispersion and driver concentration. This layer is structured so it can become a Pro feature later without changing the core forecast.

Included during Beta

History change+1.0

Score volatility0.3

Historical range58–59

Current percentile100%

Top-driver share79%

Recent directionFlat

Historical score

11 observations

2026-08-1059/1002026-08-11

Driver contribution map

Bars show the current score-point contribution. Prior weight is the maximum structural sensitivity before signal value, quality and freshness.

Global commodity · gas

+14.0

Energy input costs

+0.8

Local heat

-1.0

Import currency

-1.9

Cross-market distribution

See how the same product’s current pressure differs across all ten markets.

Weight provenance for this product

The table shows the effective prior weights used for this market before signal value, quality and freshness are applied. A larger number means the signal can move the score more when it is extreme and high quality.

Explore our science →

ChannelPrior weightEvidence

Global commodity · gasEnergy inputs+22.0Strong evidence

Import currencyExchange rate+10.0Strong evidence

Energy input costsEnergy inputs+5.0Strong evidence

Gas inflationRetail confirmation+3.0Supporting evidence

Local heatWeather & crop stress-2.2Strong evidence

Research determines the hierarchy and safeguards; exact point values remain bounded product priors pending empirical calibration.

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