BELGIUM · FOOD

Potatoes

Local heat and dryness, regional crop conditions, imports and current food inflation can move Potatoes quickly because inventories are limited.

Price pressure57/ 100 · WATCHConfidence: Medium · 1–4 months

Interpretation

The score measures directional pressure. It is not the expected percentage price change. Current market coverage: 100%

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Why this score?

Local drynessTracks physical production stress from weather, drought, crop or hydrology conditions.Weather & crop stress · Strong evidence

+4.8 pts

Regional droughtTracks physical production stress from weather, drought, crop or hydrology conditions.Weather & crop stress · Strong evidence

+2.7 pts

Rhine logisticsTracks transport constraints relevant to this market and product.Logistics · Moderate evidence

+1.3 pts

Wholesale prices · fresh produceTracks whether upstream pressure is appearing in farm, input or wholesale prices.Farm & wholesale transmission · Strong evidence

+1.0 pts

Crop conditions · arable cropsTracks physical production stress from weather, drought, crop or hydrology conditions.Weather & crop stress · Strong evidence

+0.9 pts

Food inflationA low-weight confirmation signal showing whether pressure is already appearing in retail prices or an official outlook.Retail confirmation · Supporting evidence

+0.4 pts

Farm input costs · fertiliser costTracks whether upstream pressure is appearing in farm, input or wholesale prices.Farm & wholesale transmission · Strong evidence

+0.2 pts

Domestic market prices · fresh priceTracks whether upstream pressure is appearing in farm, input or wholesale prices.Farm & wholesale transmission · Strong evidence

+0.0 pts

Farm input costs · energy costTracks direct energy prices or energy-related production costs.Energy inputs · Strong evidence

-0.0 pts

Global commodity · fertiliserTracks an upstream global cost or supply signal for this product.Global commodities · Strong evidence

-0.0 pts

Official outlook · potatoesA low-weight confirmation signal showing whether pressure is already appearing in retail prices or an official outlook.Retail confirmation · Supporting evidence

+0.0 pts

Local heatTracks physical production stress from weather, drought, crop or hydrology conditions.Weather & crop stress · Strong evidence

-1.0 pts

Import currencyTracks whether the local currency is amplifying or cushioning imported costs.Exchange rate · Strong evidence

-1.0 pts

What could change it?

Local heat and dryness, regional crop conditions, imports and current food inflation can move Potatoes quickly because inventories are limited.

Scores can reverse when commodity momentum, local weather, crop conditions, currency, logistics or inflation signals change. The model estimates directional pressure rather than an exact shelf price.

Market

BelgiumEUR

Data coverage100%

Model5.3-deep-public-data

Advanced analysis

A deeper view of score history, dispersion and driver concentration. This layer is structured so it can become a Pro feature later without changing the core forecast.

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History change+3.0

Score volatility1.0

Historical range54–57

Current percentile100%

Top-driver share36%

Recent directionFlat

Historical score

16 observations

2026-08-1057/1002026-08-12

Driver contribution map

Bars show the current score-point contribution. Prior weight is the maximum structural sensitivity before signal value, quality and freshness.

Local dryness

+4.8

Regional drought

+2.7

Rhine logistics

+1.3

Wholesale prices · fresh produce

+1.0

Crop conditions · arable crops

+0.9

Food inflation

+0.4

Farm input costs · fertiliser cost

+0.2

Local heat

-1.0

Import currency

-1.0

Rhine / Kaub logistics watch

This product’s Rhine prior

A targeted Rhine-connected logistics signal. Low water at Kaub can constrain barge loads and raise transport pressure in exposed supply chains; it is not a general inflation gauge. Structural exposure remains visible even when current Rhine pressure is neutral.

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This product’s Rhine prior+2.0

Current Kaub observation12.0 cm at Kaub

Normalized logistics pressure0.65 / 1

Source statusLive

Cross-market distribution

See how the same product’s current pressure differs across all ten markets.

Weight provenance for this product

The table shows the effective prior weights used for this market before signal value, quality and freshness are applied. A larger number means the signal can move the score more when it is extreme and high quality.

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ChannelPrior weightEvidence

Local drynessWeather & crop stress+12.0Strong evidence

Local heatWeather & crop stress+8.0Strong evidence

Crop conditions · arable cropsWeather & crop stress+7.0Strong evidence

Regional droughtWeather & crop stress+7.0Strong evidence

Wholesale prices · fresh produceFarm & wholesale transmission+6.0Strong evidence

Import currencyExchange rate+5.0Strong evidence

Food inflationRetail confirmation+5.0Supporting evidence

Farm input costs · fertiliser costFarm & wholesale transmission+3.0Strong evidence

Global commodity · fertiliserGlobal commodities+3.0Strong evidence

Rhine logisticsLogistics+2.0Moderate evidence

Farm input costs · energy costEnergy inputs+2.0Strong evidence

Research determines the hierarchy and safeguards; exact point values remain bounded product priors pending empirical calibration.

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